The long-now foundation encourages thinking beyond the next Wall-st quarter or even a single life-space. Here, an early bet
"A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than Dec 31 02020."
seems to be firmly on the side of the proponent. Some of the counter-arguments
- Pool of potential perpetrators: The number of people eager for senseless destruction is small
- Multiply by the fraction with the knowledge, skill, intelligence, and discipline to engineer a superbug
- chance that the Black Hat will defeat the White Hats, namely the world's medical and epidemiological networks, who would combat an outbreak with containment, vaccines, antibiotics, etc.
- historical (ir)relevance The only successful past cases of bioterror are the Rajneeshee cult (751 cases, 0 deaths) and the Anthrax mailing (5 deaths). The Soviet-era anthrax bioweapon leak killed another 66.
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