Re: [x-risk] [DIYbio] Bioweapon Existential Risks

Someone, or possibly several people, already did this with a human pathogen (polio, iirc).  I think it was out of SUNY.

Also, submitted sequences are already screened by synthesis companies.

" many of which have been discussed in various papers, etc." what papers?  do they discuss modified retroviral weapons or conventional attempts to weaponize bacterial or viral strains?

"Infectious agents can be developed, refined, and genetically modified with a very small staff.   It's my opinion that a knowledgeable person working with a computer, free time and an income of, say, $50k per year could develop everything needed to hijack the planet using common retroviruses, without requiring the use of controlled substances.  Handy references are available online to do so: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK19423/"  If this is true, how come we don't use viruses to cure cancer/genetic diseases already?

I don't think we are quite there yet.

--A

On Tue, Aug 13, 2013 at 4:17 PM, Erik Aronesty <erik@q32.com> wrote:

Some brief thoughts on the risks of germ line genetic modification:

   We currently possess the technology to radically alter the species.   Viral vectors can, today, deliver genetic modifications, like PCK1 skeletal muscle upregulation, that could potentially eliminate obesity, and improve overall health and lifespan. 

   However, it also now possible to create weaponized, reproduction capable viral vectors using these therapeutic techniques.  For example a retrovirus engineered to that make humans sterile unless they have been previously vaccinated.      With no other side effects, such a virus could spread globally within a few years.   ( A small, poorly funded group, could effectively wipe out the whole species - except themselves and their vaccinated friends ).  

   There are any number of doomsday scenarios - many of which have been discussed in various papers, etc.  Most of these discussions have been limited to disease-causing pathogens.   Some attention should be paid to "therapeutic viral vectors" as an existential risk.

    Like other existential risks, the risk of weaponized therapeutic vectors can be readily compared with the existential threats caused by nuclear escalation, however there are important distinctions:

       - Nuclear bombs have been used in war.   They are, accordingly, a well known, monitored threat

       - Nuclear technology requires an infrastructure for refining and processing highly radioactive substances, which are difficult to work with and give off signatures that can be detected through walls, in the atmosphere, etc.    Typical enrichment and weapons production facilities employ hundreds of people, if not thousands - making it a nearly impossible secret to keep.

        - The cost and expertise needed to develop custom pathogens has dropped dramatically over the last 5 years.   

       - While some biological agents have been used as weapons, to little comparable effect, infectious agents have never been used publicly.   They are not well monitored, and not well known.

       - Infectious agents can be developed, refined, and genetically modified with a very small staff.   It's my opinion that a knowledgeable person working with a computer, free time and an income of, say, $50k per year could develop everything needed to hijack the planet using common retroviruses, without requiring the use of controlled substances.  Handy references are available online to do so: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK19423/

       - Dangerous infectious agents, like bubonic plagues, are currently monitored.   But therapeutic viral vectors are not.  Oligonucleotide synthesis is a crucial step in the production of weaponized vectors.   While it's possible to engineer this in a home lab, it's likely that this task will be outsourced to one of the many companies that charge as little as $99 to create custom oligos.

Ideas:

I would propose that synthetic oligo production requests be centrally screened for those oligos likely to be used in contagious vector recombination.   (Given access and resources, someone could write software to do an adequate job within a month or so.)

There are, probably, other "monitorable agents" involved in the production of therapeutic viruses that could also be monitor this process - these should be investigated.

Anyone else?

- Erik

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